Plausible Values

If we no longer believe .50 is the actual value of the probability that an infant chooses the helper toy, let's try another value. Suppose we assume instead that each infant has a .80 probability of choosing the helper toy.

In the applet, change the value of the Probability of heads from .50 to .80. Generate 1000 repetitions of 16 coin tosses under this null hypothesis, and again see how often you obtain 14 or more heads.



Include a screen capture and report your estimate of the p-value in this case.

Answer the following questions in your lab report:

(m) Now what are the most common outcomes for "number of heads" in your dotplot? Is this what you would expect? Explain why or why not.

(n) From this p-value, what conclusion would you come to in this study – Does .80 appear to be a reasonable guess for the probability an infant in general will choose the helper toy? Explain your reasoning behind your conclusion as before.

(o) Based on these analyses, which guess for the underlying probability, .5 or .8, appears more reasonable based on the data collected by these researchers? Explain.

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