**Stat 301 – Exam 1
Preparations**

**Review Problems:** Review
problems (solutions)

**See also:** Examples 1.1 and 1.3, Chapter 1 Summary, ISCAM Glossary, the
salmon-colored boxes and Chapter 1 Summary and Choice of Procedures table.
There are also a few “practice quizzes” and “What went wrong”? questions in
Canvas.

**Required****
by midnight Wednesday:**
Submit Review 1 questions (parts 1 and 2) in Canvas discussion boards

Is
there interest in a zoom review session Thursday evening?

**Exam Format: **The exam will cover topics from
Investigation A, Investigation B, and Chapter 1 (HW 1-3, not Inv 1.7 or Inv 1.11). The exam questions will be mostly
short-answer questions, often with several questions on the same study (but you
do not necessarily have to answer (a) to try (b) etc.). You may use one page of your own notes (8.5 x
11, front and back). See formulas below?

You will **not**
be expected to use R/JMP/applets but to read output (from any of these) and/or
to use your calculator and/or to set up calculations by hand (show the values
substituted into the formula). You will be expected to explain your reasoning,
indicate your steps, and interpret your results. The exam will be worth
approximately 50 points, so plan to spend one minute per point.

**Study Advice: **You should study from the text
(including study conclusions, chapter examples, and chapter summary),
powerpoints (in Canvas, see Schedule View), graded homeworks, hw solutions
(follow original HW submission link), and graded practice questions. The quiz
questions/solutions (and added commentaries) should be accessible to you in
Canvas. In studying, I recommend going back through investigations, practice
questions, and homeworks, without looking at the solutions, then check your
answers, then repeat. (If you want solutions to the Practice Problems in the
text, let me know.)

**Overview: **The exam will focus on studies that
involve one binary categorical (i.e., yes/no) variable, where the data are a
sample of independent (repeat) observations from a random process (the
randomness is in the outcome) or a random sample from a large population (the
randomness is in which observational units are in your sample). We have touched
on *descriptive statistics *(e.g., count vs. percentage vs. proportion, bar
graphs with “active” titles) and have studied two main types of *statistical
inference*:

•
*Statistical significance*, where the goal is to assess the degree
to which the sample data provide evidence against a null hypothesis and in
support of a research conjecture (alternative hypothesis);

•
*Statistical confidence*, where the goal is to estimate a
population parameter with an interval of plausible values.

**Big Idea: **We have a categorical variable and we
have gathered observations from a random process or a random sample from a
larger population. From that *sample*,
we want to infer something about the underlying *process* or *population*. In
other words, we want to use the *statistic
*(which we calculate from our sample data) to test claims about (test of
significance) or to estimate (confidence interval) the value of the *parameter* (which we don’t know).* *To do this, we need to assess the
amount of “random variation” in our statistic, how much the statistic varies from
sample to sample by chance alone. We can
use simulation or the binomial distribution or (often) the normal distribution
to predict what that variation in the statistic looks like. If our model of
that randomness is appropriate, then we know how far the statistic might vary
randomly from the parameter “by chance alone.”

**From Investigation A you should be able
to:**

·
Critique
and suggest suitable comparisons to answer a research question

·
Describe
the sample distribution of a quantitative
variable (shape, center, variability, outliers)

o
Interpret
the mean and standard deviation of a data set in context

o
Interpret
a histogram of a quantitative variable (e.g., skewed right vs. skewed left)

o
Remember
to talk in terms of *distribution* not
just individual values

·
Anticipate
and explain variable behavior including outliers

o
E.g.,
why might it make sense for a distribution to be skewed to the right?

**From
Investigation B you should be able to: **

·
Interpret
probability as a long-run proportion (under identical conditions)

·
Interpret*
expected value as a long-run average*

·
Use
simulation to estimate a probability

·
Distinguish
between “exact” probability calculations and simulated results

**From Section 1.1 (Inv 1.1-1.6) you
should be able to:**

·
Define
the observational units and variable of interest in a study

·
Classify
the variable as quantitative or categorical

·
Produce
a bar graph to summarize the sample distribution
of a categorical variable

·
Calculate
a statistic to summarize a binary variable (e.g., sample count, *X*, or sample proportion, )

·
Define
a corresponding parameter of interest in the study in words (e.g., process
probability or population proportion)

·
Use
appropriate symbols to refer to parameters and statistics

·
Describe
how to carry out a tactile simulation to represent a “random choice” process
(e.g., with a coin or a die or a spinner) and to estimate a p-value

·
Describe
and interpret the results of a simulation

·
Describe
the sampling or null distribution in context

·
Describe
how to use the One Proportion
Inference applet to set up a simulation given a null and alternative
hypothesis, sample result

·
Use
the output from the One Proportion
Inference applet to find a simulation-based p-value

~~·
~~~~Set
up a binomial probability calculation given values for ~~*n* and ~~ (show numbers plugged ~~*into* equation, use P(*X* __>__
*k*) notation)

·
Distinguish
between the “simulation-based” and “exact” p-values

·
Provide
a “layman’s” ** interpretation** of p-value in your own words in the
context of the research question

·
Explain
what is meant by “statistical significance” and how it is assessed

·
Don’t
use the term “significant” in this course unless you are referencing a p-value

·
Draw
a conclusion about the “random chance” hypothesis based on a p-value

·
State
null and alternative hypothesis in symbols and in words (including choosing
less than, greater than, or not equal to for the alternative)

·
Predict
the behavior of the binomial distribution of counts (e.g., skewed vs. symmetric,
center)

·
Same
behavior as the distribution of sample proportions (but theoretical formulas
change)

·
Refer
to this as the sampling or null distribution

·
Carry
out a binomial test of significance

·
Define
parameter

·
State
hypotheses (one or two-sided)

·
Use
a graph of the binomial distribution to estimate the p-value (one or two-sided)

·
Make
a decision to reject or fail to reject the null hypothesis based on the
magnitude of the p-value

·
Make
a final conclusion *in context* about
the research question

·
Interpret
a confidence interval as a range of plausible values for the parameter (those
not rejected by a two-sided test)

·
Recognize
output for a binomial confidence interval

·
Interpret
a confidence interval in context, including a statement of the reliability of
the method (the confidence level)

~~·
~~~~Understand
that the level of significance controls the probability of rejecting the null
hypothesis when the null hypothesis is true (aka Type I Error)~~

~~·
~~~~The
~~*rejection region* is the values of the statistic that would lead you to
reject the null hypothesis.

~~·
~~~~Determine
the probability of rejecting the null hypothesis for an alternative value of
the parameter~~

~~·
~~~~E.g.,
how often will a .333 hitter convince the manager is better than a .250 hitter
(has to get 9 hits to be convincing, how often will a .333 hitter do so)~~

~~·
~~~~Aka
the ~~*power* of the rest

·
~~Visual~~

·
~~Identify
the factors that affect power and how~~

~~·
~~~~Understand
idea of using technology to determine the sample size necessary to achieve a
stated power for a particular value of the alternative~~

**From Section 1.2 (Inv 1.8-1.10) you should
be able to:**

·
Determine
whether or not the normal approximation to the binomial distribution (aka the
CLT) is reasonable (show details) for the (null or
sampling) distribution of the sample proportion (be able to sketch,
scale, and label the predicted distribution)

o
Remember
this is a separate module on the normal distribution for a quantitative
variable for additional practice

·
Determine
the mean and standard deviation for the distribution of the sample proportion

o
Apply
the CLT to predict the shape of a sampling distribution,
including drawing a well-labeled and partially scaled (3-5 values on the
horizontal axis) sketch of the distribution and shade the area of interest

o
Consider
probabilities as areas under a continuous mathematical probability curve

·
Calculate
and interpret the standardized statistic (aka *z*-score) for a sample proportion (using the theoretical mean and
standard deviation of the distribution of sample proportions)

·
Carry
out a one-proportion *z*-test of
significance

1.
Define
parameter

2.
State
hypotheses (one or two-sided)

3.
Be
able to calculate and interpret the ** test statistic** (aka
standardized statistic)

4.
Check
whether the (“theory-based” procedure is valid for the sample size used

§
It’s
really converting the z-value to a p-value that requires the large sample size

5.
Use
a graph of the normal distribution to approximate a p-value (one or two-sided)

§
Be
able to interpret applet, R, JMP output

6.
Make
a decision to reject or fail to reject the null hypothesis based on the
magnitude of the p-value

7.
Make
a final conclusion *in context* about
the research question

·
Distinguish
between the theory-based (normal distribution) and exact (binomial
distribution) p-values.

·
Apply
and explain the logic behind a continuity correction for the p-value

~~·
~~~~Calculate
power using the normal distribution for a given alternative value~~

~~·
~~~~Solve
for the sample size necessary to achieve a certain level of power~~

·
Calculate/Show
how to calculate a one-sample *z*-confidence interval

·
Interpret
output of a one-sample *z*-confidence interval

·
Explain
the components of the confidence interval formula (e.g., midpoint, width)

·
Determine
and interpret margin-of-error as the measured of expected random (sampling)
error

·
Identify
the factors that affect the midpoint and width of the confidence interval

·
Solve
for the sample size necessary to achieve a desired margin of error (See Inv
1.9(m))

·
Interpret
confidence *level* in terms of the
reliability of the method

·
Describe
impact of changing the confidence level on the interval

·
Apply
and explain the Plus Four (aka adjusted Wald) procedure for 95% confidence

·
Identify
Wald vs. Plus Four vs. Binomial and when they will be similar

·
Never
a bad idea to use “plus four”

·
Describe
and utilize the *duality* between
two-sided tests and confidence intervals

**From
Section 1.3 (Inv 1.12-1.18) you should be able to:**

·
Define
the population, sample, sampling frame, statistic, and parameter for a
particular study context

·
Decide
whether a *sampling method* is unbiased
by

·
Examining
the sampling distribution of the statistic, and determining whether it is
(approximately) centered at the population parameter value

·
Considering
whether the sampling frame is complete and whether the selection method is
random, based on a description of the sampling process.

·
Be
able to conjecture with justification a direction for sampling or nonsampling
bias (describe whether likely to systematically produce over or underestimates
of the parameter value and why)

·
Know
the difference between “bias” and an unlucky sample

~~·
~~~~Produce
a simple random sample from a sampling frame, e.g., with GRN applet, Random.org~~

·
Describe
the concept of (random) sampling variability to a nonstatistician

~~·
~~~~Identify
the following sampling methods from a description: systematic sampling,
multistage sampling, stratified sampling~~

~~·
~~~~Explain
how they differ from a simple random sample~~

·
Suggest
sampling and nonsampling errors present in a study context (see Investigation
1.15; Example 1.3)

·
Describe
the difference between statistical significance and practical significance
(Investigation 1.17)

·
Realize
that when we are sampling from a finite population, the binomial distribution
is an approximation

·
This
approximation is more valid the larger the population size compared to the
sample size (e.g., N __>__ 20*n*)

·
*The hypergeometric distribution (and related
‘finite population correlation factor’ will not be covered on Exam 1. Instead we will work with very large
populations and use the binomial approximation and/or the normal approximation
to the hypergeometric. *

·
When
this approximation is valid, we apply all the same techniques (e.g.,
simulation, binomial, normal) as earlier in the chapter.

·
When
this approximation is valid, neither the population size nor the percentage of
the population sampled influence our statements of significance or confidence

**Which distribution do I use to find a
p-value or a confidence interval?**

·
You
have several options for categorical data (assuming you are sampling a binary
variable from a random process or a large population)

o
Simulation,
although don’t have confidence interval ~~or power~~ *formulas*

o
The
binomial distribution, although don’t have confidence interval ~~or power ~~*formulas* (referred to as exact procedures)

o
The
normal distribution **if** the conditions
for the CLT are met (referred to as z-procedures)

**Miscellaneous**

•
Be
able to define a probability as a long-run proportion (e.g., whether it’s a
probability from a model, from a normal distribution, from a p-value)

o
What
is the random process being repeated, what is the outcome of interest

•
Clearly
differentiate parameters from statistics (e.g., parameter = *long-run* proportion or proportion of *all* adults)

o
Probably
not “past tense” (not observed)

•
Don’t
mix counts, proportions, percentages

•
Be
able to state hypotheses in symbols and/or words

o
Use
symbols correctly (e.g., know when you are using and when or
)

~~•
~~~~Clearly
explain how you are finding your output (e.g., which command used)~~

•
Choice
of success is often arbitrary, just make sure you are consistent

o
Specifying one outcome as success doesn’t mean you
have to use a one-sided alternative

•
Thinking
about your sample size can often help you define the observational units

•
Be
able to define what each dot represents and the variable in our “null” distributions
(aka sampling distributions) vs. the sample distribution

•
A
calculation will seldom be the end of the question – always be on the look out
for “and interpret”

•
We
can now give better answers to some of the early “generalizability” questions

•
Always
put your comments in context

•
Be
able to sketch and label the predicted null distribution

•
Know
the difference between “simulated” and “theoretical” values (e.g., for mean and
SD, p-value)

•
Some
interesting results that we didn’t really derive but can certainly use

o
SD() maximized at =
.5

o
Sample
size effects are larger than effects on SD() but exhibit diminishing returns

o
1/ is pretty good approximation of
margin-of-error for 95% confidence for .

•
It’s
possible I will say find the p-value or interval and if normal approximation is
not valid you should not use it

o
Remember
the sample size checks differ slightly between a test and an interval

o
For
proportions: Binomial and Plus Four (95%) can be used with any sample size

•
Be
able to explain what is meant by “95% confidence” in your own words, in
context, without using the words confidence, probability, sure, or chance

•
Be
able to *interpret* a p-value in your
own words, not only *evaluate*

•
Know
the factors that affect test statistic, p-value, confidence intervals, and
power/types of error probabilities

•
Be able
to suggest a continuity correction (for tail probabilities, “outside” and
“between”; counts and/or proportions)

•
Keep
in mind we never get evidence *for *the
null, only lack of evidence against it

o
Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence

•
When
making a choice between two options, you should argue both *for* one and against the other (sometimes you tell me one has one
property/advantage but don’t really tell me why the other does not)

o
Make
sure your explanations/justifications aren’t too “circular” (e.g., I have a
larger confidence level because I am more certain the parameter is contained in
the interval)

•
Be
able to evaluate the appropriateness of a model, understand the assumptions
underlying a model

o
e.g.,
how to check the four conditions of a binomial model (e.g., is it ok to assume
the infants’ choices are independent of each other?)

o
e.g.,
how to also *check* the
sample size conditions for a normal approximation to the binomial

o
e.g.,
how to check the population size conditions for the binomial approximation when
sampling from a finite population

•
You
won’t do a lot of hand calculations but may be asked to set up an equation
(e.g., pick the right expression with the values substituted in) or explain a
property using the equation (e.g., because *n*
is in the denominator)

•
We
don’t always want to assume 0.5 in Ho/Ha.
The choices of hypothesized value and alternative direction are based
entirely on the research question, not anything about the observed sample data.

o
Match
the direction of the alternative hypothesis to a stated research question

•
If
confidence level is stated, use 95%. If no significance level is stated, you
can use 5%. Don’t interchange the
phrases “significance” and “confidence”

**Advice:**

•
Part
of your grade will be based on communication.
Be precise in your statements and use of terminology. Avoid unclear statements, and especially don’t use the word “it”! Always relate your comments
to the study context.

o
I
would also avoid “data,” “results,” “accurate” because I don’t usually know
what you mean by them

o
Also
say the distribution *of what* and the
standard deviation *of what*

•
Show
the details of any of your calculations (including sample size checks)

•
Organize
notes for efficient retrieval of information/formulas

•
Don’t
plan to use your notes too much

o
Prepare
as if exam were closed book/notes

o
Focus
on understanding, not memorization

o
Be
cognizant of time constraint

•
Expect
similar questions to what you have been answering in class every day, on HW

o
Also
be ready for “what if” questions (small changes that require you to conjecture
and explain more than perform additional calculations)

•
Be
sure to explain any assumptions you are making along the way

•
Be
prepared to think/explain/interpret

o
Not
just plug into formulas

o
Be
ready to explain process of how you would do calculations

§
e.g.,
p-value = P(X ≤ k), where X ~ Binomial(n, π)

o
Be
able to *both* make conclusions from a
p-value (evaluate) *and* provide a
detailed interpretation of what the p-value measures in context (interpret)

o
Be
succinct in your answers (using acceptable statistical terms helps with this,
but don’t use them incorrectly)

•
Read
carefully

•
Be
sure to answer the question asked

•
Take
advantage of information provided

•
Relate
conclusions to context

•
Prepare

o
Re-work
in-class investigations

o
Re-work
HW questions

o
Work
through examples

o
Re-read
wrap-up sections

o
Come
to Thursday’s class prepared with questions

o
Bring
questions to office hours, Canvas discussion boards

**These are
the most relevant formulas:**

*Normal approximation for *:
E() = , SD() =

*Standardizing*: (*observation
– mean*)/*std dev* = * *(x-)/

*One-sample
z-test statistic*:

*One-sample (Wald) z-confidence interval*: __+__ *z**

*Plus Four 95% confidence interval: * where

*Sample mean:* = * **Sample
standard deviation: s = *

*Binomial*: P(X = *k*) = E(X) = *n** *
SD(X) =

**Technology Summary (for reference)**

·
*To calculate/estimate a probability from
a binomial distribution knowing n and *

o
One
Proportion Inference applet

o
JMP:
Distribution Calculator (Journal)

o
R:
iscambinomprob

·
*To calculate a probability from a normal
distribution knowing mean and std dev*

o
Normal
Probability Calculator Applet

§
Easy
to label horizontal axis

o
JMP:
Distribution Calculator (Journal file)

o
R:
iscamnormprob

All
three methods allow you to find the probability above, below, between, or
outside values.

·
*To calculate a percentile from a normal
distribution knowing mean and std*
(you know the probability and want to find the corresponding observation,
z-score)

o
Normal
Probability Calculator Applet

§
Enter
value in probability box and press enter or click mouse elsewhere

o
JMP:
Distribution Calculator (Input probability and calculate quantiles)

o
R:
iscaminvnorm

o
FYI: With JMP
and R, you can do something like this with the binomial distribution as well.
You can also use trial and error, but explain the process

·
*To find critical values (z*) from a
standard normal distribution (mean = 0, SD = 1)*

o
Normal
Probability Calculator applet, specifying the tail probabilities (1-C)/2 and
pressing Enter

o
JMP:
Distribution Calculator (Input probability and calculate quantiles)

o
R:
iscaminvorm

·
*To calculate the exact binomial p-value*

o
One
proportion Inference applet

§
Check
the Exact Binomial box

o
JMP:
Analyze > Distribution (one-sided alternative hypothesis)

§
Can
also use Distribution Calculator

o
R:
iscambinomprob

·
*To approximate a binomial p-value*

o
*Simulation: *One Proportion Inference applet,
especially when CLT does not apply

§
Make
sure run enough repetitions for simulation-based p-value

§
Can
also calculate exact binomial p-value, or normal approximation

o
*CLT: *Theory-Based Inference Applet (one proportion)

§
Includes
graph (can paste in raw data) and Ho/Ha statements

§
Uses
normal approximation

§
Allows
continuity correction

o
JMP:
(Journal) Hypothesis Test for One Proportion (z-test)

§
Includes
Ho/Ha, p-value format

o
R:
iscamonepropztest

·
*To calculate an exact binomial
confidence interval*

o
JMP:
(Journal) Confidence Interval for One Proportion

o
R:
iscambinomtest

·
*To calculate a one-sample z-confidence
interval*

o
Theory-Based
Inference applet (one proportion)

o
JMP:
(Journal) Confidence Interval for One Proportion

§
If
you use Analyze > Distribution you get the “score interval” (p. 79)

o
R:
iscamonepropztest

With
95% confidence, can use the Adjusted Wald by specifying two more successes and
4 more observations.

~~·
~~~~To calculate power~~

~~o
~~~~Power
Simulation applet (simulation or exact or normal approximation)~~

~~§
~~~~Really
just two copies of the One Proportion applet~~

~~o
~~~~JMP:
DOE > Sample Size and Power (binomial = Exact Clopper-Pearson)~~

~~o
~~~~R:
iscambinompower, iscamnormpower~~